2020 Election Prediction For the Week of October 18 to October 25th

The most significant trend that I have noted over the last two weeks is the decrease in the number of undecided voters. For many weeks, between five and seven percent of people surveyed supported neither President Trump nor former Vice-President Biden. Polls conducted post-final presidential debate suggest a dramatic decline in this group, to two percent. From national polls to state polls (excluding Michigan), the result is the same.

From a deep dive into the weediness of polling data, I found a couple of interesting nuggets. Except for North Carolina, people prefer their members of Congress to be more independent of the President than in lockstep. Another common feeling is that they disapprove of the chant “lock them up” at Trump rallies.

In my Debate Review, I commented that President Trump spends too much time on Hunter’s hard drive or other items regarding the former Vice President’s children. Recent polling suggests more than 75% of those surveyed in the last two weeks feel that the Biden family benefited financially from his time as Vice-President. President Trump attempted to solidify this belief at the debate, hoping that it would convert some undecided.

This may have been a good strategy. As I mentioned above, the undecided have started picking a team. Most of those have moved into Trump’s corner. It may not be enough to decrease his deficit, but things have gotten much tighter.

Pandemic fatigue may be helping President Trump. His overall approval rating for a pandemic response has dramatically increased. Simultaneously, most polled believe that Trump put a rosy picture on the pandemic because he truly believes it is not a great concern, rather than trying to deceive people. I think most Trump supporters feel the same, so a lack of coordinated federal response is a response. Looking at the states that I felt were within Trump’s reach by one or two keys, almost all of them are giving him a more positive response to the pandemic (FL, GA, IA, NC, and NE).

President Trump’s approval rating has also gone up in the State of Texas, and his delta between approval and disapproval has dropped in five states.

Even with all of the positive momentum and the rallies, I still have the former Vice President betting the incumbent 374 to 164 electoral votes.