2020 Prediction Update week of 21 to 28 September

Key Takeaways

  • Biden now leads by 9 points nationally (51% to 42%) and maintains his advantage across the seventeen “key” states for my analysis.
  • Biden now leads by 1.1 points in the state of Ohio. This is the first time he has lead in that state for 2020 since July.
  • Biden has a +5 lead in Pennsylvania, and all keys indicate this will go fro Biden, changing the state from leaning to solid blue.
  • Polling data in Nebraska finally fulfills the keys and gives Biden the state.
  • Of the new surveys that have gone out in the last week, only 37% of voters believe that Trump should fill the open Supreme Court seat even if he loses the election in November.
  • 2 to 1 voters nationally say that “The economy is struggling and we need more financial relief from Washington.”
  • Nationally, 69% of voters continue to have serious concerns about COVID-19.
  • Just 42% of voters now say that they will get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available.
  • Almost 28% of the voters plan on using mail-in voting for 2020. This means that if 130 million votes, we could have 47 million votes that will not be entered into the mix until well after the polls close.  

Former Vice Presidents lead has increased by about .1 from a spread of +6.8 to +6.9 over the last week, this results in Biden at 49.8% and President Trump at 42.9%. All of the polls, excluding Rasmussen Reports has Vice President Biden winning between a +4 and +10 margin with a median of 8.5. 

Rasmussen Reports has shifted from Trump +1 to Biden +1. This is the first time in 2020 that all polls show Biden as the front runner.  

This has not changed the ‘Leading in the poll’ keys for GA, MN, CO, FL, ME, AZ, IA, MI, NH, NV, PA, TX, WI, NC, NE, and VA.

With the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the question has circulated how much will that affect someone’s choice for President. It is too early to determine since only a few polls have been conducted in the last week. However, the common opinion has been that it would solidify Trump Supporters to Trump and Democrats to Biden. There is no evidence that this has created a swing. It may push an undecided to one or the other, but there is no data to back this claim.

In Georgia, President Trump and Vice President Biden are tied for the lead. The polls show President Trump at a +1 but a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±3.3%. When asked why they would vote for former Vice President Biden, they were given two options. You would vote for Biden because you support Former Vice President Biden or your opposition to Donald Trump. This questions polls at 39 and 38%, respectively. However, they would vote for President Trump over Former Vice President Biden, 67% stated because they like President Trump and only 17% because they oppose Biden. One of the issues I had discussed a lot over the last few months is Universal Health Care. 

The YouGov poll asked if healthcare is a right and all people deserved it, and in Georgia, 59% polled answered this in the affirmative. Just as a sanity check for the keys, when asked about factors to vote for President, Economy (85%), healthcare (73%), Supreme Court (68%), Coronavirus outbreak (63%), civil unrest (63%), gun policy (62%), and immigration (61%) were the major factors. 

On the Economy, the US is in a recession and Georgians per capita income is down compared to the Obama administration. 

Georgian do still believe that President Trump (51%) would do a better job at handling the Economy then Joe Biden (40%). Lastly, 61% of those polled believe that if a coronavirus vaccine was announced this year that they think it was rushed through without enough testing. 

There has been little change in President Trump’s approval rating in Minnesota. February through September, his approval rating has been around 43%, and his disapproval rating 52%. His rhetoric on mail balloting seems to be resonating for Minnesota Republicans. Over 64% state that mail-in voting is vulnerable to significant levels of fraud. 

This also leads to again, in Minnesota, the majority of Republicans will be voting in person. Interesting side note, in Minnesota, starting two weeks before the election, local officials will start the final step of processing the ballot. 

They will open the sealed secret envelope and run the ballot through a machine that counts the votes. Once the polls close on election night, the votes will be added to the in-person votes, and the results will be reported to the Secretary of State. So in Minnesota, there is a real chance that exit polling will show Trump in a significant lead until all the polls close. Of interest in the latest poll in Minnesota was the break down of what was an important issue for Biden voters compared to Trump voters. On the Economy, law and order, and Supreme Court, these were the most important factors. Oddly, law and order received almost a 0% when it came to Biden supporters. Racial justice, COVID-19, health care, and climate change were the important issue for Biden supports. While racial justice, climate change, and COVID-19 also getting zeros from Trump supporters.

Florida is going to be interesting in November. Biden still maintains about a +1.8, but this is within the MoE, so it is a complete toss-up. 

Over the last week, polls have not gone either direction. From the most recent polling, there is a possibility that close to 50% of Floridians will be voting by mail. Florida will start counting mail-in votes 22 days before the election. They are another state that will release the mail-in count at the closing of the polls. 

Florida has a long list of items to verify if a ballot is valid. Based on the number of qualifiers, a large number of mail-in votes, and how tight I think this will be, I expect to see the Trump Campaign dropping several lawsuits against mail-in votes the afternoon of the election. However, looking at the polling demographics, in Florida, the 50% mail-ins, 63% were Republican.

Ohio is the most significant change of the week. Former Vice President Biden has increased his lead over President Trump. In the latest Fox News poll, they have Biden at +5 with a MoE of ± 3. This still puts Biden ahead by +2, his biggest lead of in Ohio in the last three months. Like most other polls, Ohioans think that Joe Biden would do a better job at Policing and criminal justice (48% to 46%), Coronavirus (52% to 38%), and Nominating a Supreme Court Justice (49% to 43%). President Trump still maintains the lead on building the Economy (50% to 45%). With the latest polls, this moves Ohio into a solid Blue state.

The latest Monmouth University Poll shows President Trump with a slight lead over the former Vice President. It appears as if Trump has broadened his support while Biden has held steady. 

Most of the models show President Trump doing better with a large turn out in Iowa. Even though he has a slight lead in the polls, the other keys suggest Iowa as a toss-up state leaning in Biden’s favor.

Michigan has polled well for Biden over the last few weeks. He is now at a +5.2. The Trafalgar Group Poll is the only one that is showing a Trump +1. The keys indicate that this is a solid blue for Biden, but I will keep it leaning to Biden for this week.  

There was finally some polling data coming out to Nebraska. Of significance, 45% stated that they approve of how President Trump is doing his job, while 53% said they do not agree. Former Vice President Biden is leading President in the polls, 48% to 41% for the upcoming election. Lastly, those polled were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trump and Biden. President Trump, like in most state polls that in general, he has an unfavorable impression on people. Nebraska is one of few states that Biden polls as a favorable impression. 

This fulfills three of my keys, which make Nebraska a blue state.