2020 Prediction Update for the Week of 9/14 to 9/20

Former Vice Presidents lead has decreased by about 1.2 from a spread of +8 to +6.8 over the last week, this results in Biden at 50.3% and President Trump at 43.5%.   All of the polls excluding Rasmussen Reports has Vice President Biden winning between a +4 and +9 margin with a median of 8.5.  Rasmussen Reports has President Trump at +1.

This has not changed the ‘Leading in the poll’ keys for GA, MN, CO, FL, ME, OH, AZ, IA, MI, NH, NV, PA, TX, WI, NC, NE, and VA.

However, President Trump has increased the spread in Texas from +2 to +2.3.  Interestingly, the latest polls have not seen President Trump gaining ground but rather Vice President Biden losing ground.  President Trump went from 48 to 47.3 and Vice President Biden from 46 to 45.  Increasing the undecided voters.  Based on new polling data, NC was Vice President Biden’s biggest gain.  He went from 45 to 47.3

There had been minimal polling in Nebraska, however reading a few articles in their local papers President Trump still seems to have a firm lead.  There was only one poll that I could find for the last month, it has Biden in the lead 51% to 44% with a +/- 4.9%.  However, this poll was conducted by the Global Strategy Group and they typically only get a B/C rating.  They asked a single question about the President al Election, It the election was held today, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump?

In the latest Texas poll when asked about Biden’s favorability and how he handles himself personally, his numbers have gone up and for the first time is over 51%.  When asked about President Trump, his numbers still hover around 41% stating that he has a favorable personality.  Texans are also expressing that President Trump is campaigning too much in their state.  This does not seem to be out of step with the Ad Reservations and Ad Buying that I mentioned last week and is the reason Texas made it on to my list.  Lastly, across Texas almost all polls show their greatest concerns, from highest to lowest, are the economy, health, and safety.  However, their driving factor on who they will vote for is the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak and 46% the President Trump’s response has made seniors more at risk for the virus and he downplayed the virus, not to avoid panicking, but for his own political reasons or did not think it was as serious as it was. 

Nevada was another state that was difficult in finding polling data.  However, a recent New York Times / Siena College Research Institute poll for September 8-10 has been released.  This one of the few states that has a favorability rate in the 40s for President Trump (45%), however, Vice President Biden got a favorability rate of 52% which is one of his highest.  Another interesting bit of information is that this was one of the few states that addressing law and order was significantly more important than the response to the coronavirus pandemic.  Unfortunately, there was not a question regarding the federal response, so the keys are even between President Trump and Vice President Biden.  For now, I am going to list NV as an edge toward President Trump

Ohio is another state that the polling data is remarkably interesting.  When asked who voters are going to vote for, 48% stated Trump and 45% state Biden.  This leaves about 6% that are either undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.  What I find intriguing is when asked if the Trump administration was trying to disrupt operations of the US Postal Service prior to the election, 47% stated yes.  When Ohioans were asked to prioritize their biggest concerns, COVID-19, public unrest, and rebuilding the economy percolated to the top three.  Yet when asked what issue will most impact who you vote for, personal values and their own economic situation was the top two.  The handling of the coronavirus was a distant third.   When I look at the keys, Ohio should be overwhelmingly supportive of Vice President Biden, yet President Trump has a slight lead in the polls. 

Looking across several states, this week racism in the criminal justice system has moved up to one of the biggest problems in America today. 

A last interesting point, as I pointed out in my original post, was whether the country would be better is the White House and Senate were controlled by the same party or should there be a balance of power between the two.  On the surveys that I reviewed, almost 68% of Americans think that be being controlled by the same party is better for the country. 

Overall, my assessment is that the keys still favor Vice President Biden for the November Election.

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